Uranium market models built from first principles.
This is how I analyze uranium. Bottom-up supply & demand sourced from EIA, NRC, and public filings. Live producer prices via yfinance. CCJ contract decay built from Cameco’s own MD&A. All assumptions visible. Make your own call.
These aren’t licensed data feeds. They’re analyst models — the kind you’d build yourself if you had the time. Every source is cited. Every estimate is labeled as such. You decide if the thesis holds.
Live — yfinance
Equity prices
Producer prices (CCJ, NXE, DNN, UEC, UUUU, EU, PALAF) fetched from Yahoo Finance on every report open. SPUT NAV calculated from live TSX data.
Yahoo Finance via yfinance · live on open
Government — EIA / NRC
US demand & fleet data
US uranium demand from EIA-923 nuclear generation (Feb 2026 release). Supply origin and contracts from EIA-858. NRC license database for all 94 units.
EIA-923, EIA-858, NRC ADAMS · public government data
Analyst — Estimated
Contract & commodity models
CCJ contract decay from Cameco Dec 2025 MD&A tables. KAP phantom supply from subsoil use agreements. Term spread from publicly cited UxC. These are analyst estimates — directional, not audited.
Cameco MD&A, KAP filings, UxC public · analyst estimates
Curated — IAEA / WNA
Global reactor database
Japan restart tracker from NRA public filings and utility announcements. Global newbuild from IAEA PRIS and WNA. All reactor data hand-verified.
IAEA PRIS, WNA, NRA Japan · curated database
Important — Read This
What this is (and isn’t)
This is the analytical framework I use to think about uranium. Spot and term prices are analyst estimates based on publicly cited data. Use this to form a thesis and check the math — not as a final authority. Verify before trading.
Not investment advice · verify independently
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5 reports, no account required
The US Demand Model, Producer Screener, Japan Restart Tracker, and Fleet Map open immediately. Read the data, check the sources, decide if the framework is worth your time before paying anything.
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Model Signals
What the models are showing.
Model-derived signals from the full report suite. Source cited on each. Analyst estimates unless otherwise noted.
● Re-contracting Active
+$5.90
Term Premium Over Spot
UxC term $91.50 vs spot $85.60. Utilities are paying a premium for future delivery — mass re-contracting has begun.
UxC public citation (analyst est.)
● ATM Closed
-5.5%
SPUT Discount to NAV
C$19.49 price. ATM only opens at a premium. Currently dormant — no physical buying from SPUT mechanism.
TSX via yfinance (live)
● Supply Overstated
162M lbs
KAP Phantom Supply
Cumulative shortfall vs subsoil agreements 2018–2026. Acid constraint ongoing. Analyst model from public KAP filings.
9 utilities · 8 developers · 5 active term contracts · 1 MOU · offtake pipeline.
Public filingsPro
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KAP Global Balance
Phantom supply structural model. Peak deficit 2030 at 15.8M lbs/yr. China +33M lbs 2035.
KAP filingsPro
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CCJ Q2 2026 Earnings
Cameco Q2 bottom-up preview. Est. EPS vs $0.44 consensus. 3 scenarios + spot sensitivity.
LiveMD&APro
“Uranium is entering forced-buy territory. The utilities that didn’t contract during the 2024 correction now have a 2028 deadline. At 39.7M lbs/yr demand and only 21M lbs committed, someone has to sign — at whatever price the market demands.”
uranium-edge Contract Gap Model · May 2026 · analyst estimates from EIA-858 and public utility filings
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+Catalyst Calendar — 25 dated events, live 90-day countdown
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All Assumptions Visible
Every source is cited inside each report. Analyst estimates are labeled. Stress-test the thesis yourself.
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FAQ
Common questions.
These are analyst models, not audited data terminals. Government-sourced reports (US Demand Model, Fleet Map, Supply Origin) pull directly from EIA and NRC — those numbers are as accurate as the government releases. Model-derived figures (KAP phantom supply, CCJ contract decay, term spread) are analyst estimates built from public filings and publicly cited sources. They are directionally sound but specific numbers will differ from exact market data. Treat this as a framework for forming a thesis, not a source of truth for exact figures. Always verify before trading.
Live = equity prices fetched from Yahoo Finance (yfinance) on every open. Producer prices (CCJ, NXE, DNN, etc.) and SPUT are genuinely live. Model = built from public filings or analyst estimates, regenerated when source data updates. Spot and term uranium prices are analyst estimates from publicly cited UxC data — not live API feeds. The distinction matters: live prices are real-time, model numbers reflect the last source data publication.
EIA-923 (nuclear generation / US uranium demand), EIA-858 (Uranium Marketing Annual Report), NRC license database, IAEA PRIS, WNA Nuclear Fuel Report, UxC spot/term price (publicly cited), Kazatomprom subsoil use agreements and IR filings, Cameco Q4 2025 MD&A price sensitivity tables, TSX / NYSE via yfinance, Federal Register DOE program data. All data is from public filings and publicly available publications. Nothing here is from proprietary or licensed data feeds.
Pro unlocks the full model suite: US Nuclear Fleet Map (94 units, NRC data), CCJ Q2 2026 Earnings model (bear/base/bull scenarios, spot sensitivity table), SPUT premium/discount tracker, CCJ contract decay analysis, Term Spread Monitor, KAP phantom supply model, Japan Restart Tracker (27 units), Supply Origin (EIA-858), Contract Gap waterfall, Demand Backlog (618M lbs), P&L Sensitivity ($40–$160 spot, 7 producers), and Catalyst Calendar (25 dated events). Plus all future reports as they ship.
Live reports (producer screener, SPUT, physical trusts, CCJ decay) refresh equity prices on every open. Model reports are regenerated when new source data is released — typically when EIA publishes updated fuel data or a major quarterly filing drops. The Catalyst Calendar countdown updates automatically by date. Every report shows a "last updated" date so you know exactly when the underlying data was last refreshed.
No. uranium-edge provides data analysis and market models for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this platform constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investment decisions are your own. See the full disclaimer in the footer.
Yes. The Producer Screener covers CCJ (Cameco), NXE (NexGen Energy), DNN (Denison Mines), UEC (Uranium Energy Corp), UUUU (Energy Fuels), EU (enCore Energy), and PALAF (Paladin Energy) with live prices from US/OTC markets via yfinance. The P&L Sensitivity model covers producers and developers separately, with P/NAV modeling for pre-production names.
uranium-edge · May 2026
The forced-buy window opens in 2028. Get in position before utilities do.
126M lbs of inventory. 39.7M lbs/yr demand. Only 21M lbs committed for 2028. Model estimates based on EIA-858 and analyst contract analysis.